Gallatin, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

844
FXUS64 KOHX 130532
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1232 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

- Medium to high rain chances (50 to 80%) Wednesday. No severe
  weather is expected, but heavy rain could lead to localized
  flooding.

- Heat returns Friday into this weekend, with high temperatures in
  the mid to upper 90s. Heat indices will get into the low triple
  digits west of the Cumberland Plateau, but are expected to stay
  below advisory criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

After several dry days, we finally had some scattered showers and
storms this afternoon. In fact, there`s still one or two out there
and this could be the case for the next several hours. Latest CAMs
suggests these cells that are in our northwest quadrant at forecast
time could persist, slowly trekking across our northern counties.
That would spell brief heavy rain for anyone who got one and
maybe even a rumble of thunder along the state line. All of this
is a very welcome sight because even though everyone`s grass is
growing like crazy, the drought monitor is actually starting to
get some color on it. Hopefully, tomorrow can put a dent in that.
For now, look for these showers/storms to continue along with some
patchy fog after midnight, especially for those areas that saw
rain earlier this afternoon. Use caution during the morning
commute because it won`t be widespread, but it could creep up on
you quickly.

As far as that potential dent, it still looks like tomorrow will
provide our best shower and thunderstorm coverage of the week as a
weak upper level shortwave pushes into the region. This will provide
a scant amount of lift for us in Middle TN and open the door for
convection to begin in the early afternoon hours. Forecast soundings
remain very unimpressive. Lapse rates are garbage (less than 6
deg/km) and shear is almost non-existant. This spells a very, very
low potential for any severe wind gusts. However, PWs remain quite
high. Our 00Z sounding shows 2.06 inches and this should be the case
again tomorrow. While I don`t see any signal for focused flooding,
we can`t rule out any localized flooding with expected rain rates.
Remember: turn around, don`t drown. With the additional coverage of
storms tomorrow, temperatures and heat index values should be
similar to what we saw today. This won`t be the case moving forward,
though.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

As we get into Thursday and Friday, and especially this weekend,
storm chances fall off quite a bit as high pressure starts to
dominate the forecast again. Afternoon highs will climb into the mid-
90s west of the Plateau by Friday and there`s at least a medium
chance they stick around into the start of next week. Heat Index
values will be in the low triple digits Friday and we`ll be close to
Heat Advisory criteria (105+) through the weekend. Rain chances
aren`t zero, but storm coverage should be fairly isolated and severe
chances remain low. So while storms won`t be a big weekend concern,
if you have outdoor plans, be sure to plan ahead to keep yourself
and loved ones cool.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

IFR cigs has formed at CSV and will be in place most of the night.
Otherwise, mainly VFR overnight for Middle TN terminals with low
prob of impacts from isolated TSRA. Winds will be light from the
south.

Daytime Wednesday, isolated showers and storms will form in the
morning, becoming widespread across Middle Tennessee by 20Z. VFR
conditions will occur outside impacts from the storms. Severe
storms are not expected, but locally very heavy rainfall is
possible. Winds will be generally south to southwest under 10KT
except with thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  74  93  72 /  50  40  20  10
Clarksville    91  71  92  70 /  40  30  20   0
Crossville     83  68  84  66 /  70  50  50   0
Columbia       91  72  91  70 /  60  30  20  10
Cookeville     86  70  87  69 /  70  50  40   0
Jamestown      84  68  86  67 /  70  50  40   0
Lawrenceburg   89  71  90  69 /  60  40  30  10
Murfreesboro   91  72  92  71 /  60  50  30  10
Waverly        91  71  91  69 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....13